Spending more than half a year in lockdown, Melburnians currently being in lockdown for the sixth time and more weeks in tighter restrictions to come.
There’s undoubted trauma in the community. We all shared that sense of dread and despair when it became apparent Victoria was facing yet another stint at home.
Pollsters say how this community trauma translates to voting behaviour is yet to be tested. The Delta variant has seen cases soar and some predictions state numbers will reach 1,000 new Delta cases per day.
After last year’s marathon lockdown, a normal Covid summer was promised. There was something to look forward to out of lockdown, Christmas break, the summer holidays, kids enjoying the sunny beaches, family gatherings with feasts, even crowds at Boxing Day tests.
People need to see a normal life over the horizon, but the Delta variant’s spread at major events is forcing a rethink on how stadiums, in particular, are managed.
Against this backdrop, it seems people do not like to read or hear about politics or even the electoral ramifications of Covid. However strategists from major parties are analysing what it means ahead of upcoming federal and Victorian polls.
People are searching for a glimmer of hope from their leaders.
Voting analysis by state shows the Australia Labor Party (ALP) leading on a two-party preferred basis in Australia’s two largest States of Victoria and New South Wales (NSW) and also holding leads in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. The Liberal National Party (L-NP) leads only in Queensland.
The ALP leads strongly in Victoria on 59.5% (down 0.5% points since mid-August) compared to the L-NP on 40.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 6.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The Andrews government has won back some support lost during the pandemic and is in an election-winning position 15 months from polling day.
The findings in a survey by Resolve Political Monitor conducted exclusively for The Age, show Labor has regained support from voters who previously planned to vote for independent candidates.
Since the last survey taken in May-June, the Andrews government’s primary vote has risen three percentage points to 40 per cent.
But the repeated lockdowns triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic have taken a toll on the government’s popularity. Labor’s primary vote is still three points lower than it was at the 2018 poll. The opposition has again failed to capitalise on the repeated lockdowns over the past 18 months and remains on the same primary vote of 35% that it recorded at the 2018 election. That primary vote meant the Liberal-National Coalition lost 11 lower house seats. Labor was decisively returned to government for a second consecutive term.
Paul Strangio, associate professor of politics at Monash University, said the findings suggested the government would be comfortably returned.
“Given the pandemic, Andrews’ standing is remarkably resilient, and Opposition Leader (Michael O’ Brien then and Mathew Guy has replaced Brien, now) position remains dire,” Professor Strangio said.
The latest survey found support for the Greens was relatively steady at 10 per cent. Support for independent candidates dropped from 12% to 9%, with those votes shifting to Labor. Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed said that while Victorians had swung back behind the Labor state government, they had also shown increasing support for the federal Coalition government, reflecting a general support for incumbency during the pandemic.
“It’s not that Andrews’ popularity has increased; it is people returning to support the government, not the leader.” Monash University senior lecturer in politics Zareh Ghazarian agreed, and suggested “incumbents are in the box seat”. “We saw this in state elections in Tasmania, Queensland and WA, as voters were seemingly resistant to change during the pandemic,” he said.
Faith in both federal and state governments has dropped as the pandemic has progressed, incumbency has lost some of its edge. A recent Essential poll found 49 per cent of Victorians thought the Andrews government had managed the pandemic well. It was unchanged since March, despite two more lockdowns.
Over the same period, Victorian voters’ rating of the federal government dropped from 51 per cent to 39 per cent.
Voters who intend to support the Coalition next November aren’t necessarily impressed by Mr O’Brien, but say they want to register a vote against Mr Andrews.
The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1,106 Victorians in July and August. They were asked to rank who they would vote for at a state election if it were held today. The results had a margin of error of 2.5 per cent.
The survey found most Australians want state leaders to stick to the national cabinet agreement to ease restrictions and open up when vaccination targets are met, with 62 per cent backing the plan and 24 per cent saying states and territories should go their own way.
State and territory leaders remain split on whether case numbers need to be significantly suppressed before the country can open up, which under the national cabinet agreement would begin once vaccination rates hit 70 or 80 per cent.
On Saturday 21st August, Mr Andrews showed some hesitancy towards the plan, saying: “If you don’t actively suppress this virus then when you do open up, we will have scenes the likes of which none of us have ever experienced in our hospitals.”
In Victoria, 61% of voters want Mr Andrews to stick to the national deal, while 25% believe he should have the freedom to follow his plan.
However, at the moment, it’s a hard task for the Prime Minister and premier to deliver. The earlier people get vaccinated, the sooner can they exit from lockdown. But Victoria is behind in vaccinations. People are getting Covid vaccine appointments starting from November 2021. Kids won’t get back to school until the proper ventilation system is introduced in the classrooms as per Andrew’s government plans.
The Prime Minister is not supporting the Victorian government in terms of the rolling out of vaccination systems on an equality basis. People are desperate now. Lockdowns have given a mental stress. Parents are finding it difficult to cope with remote learning, especially with younger kids at home.
To keep the poll up and to win the next state election for the Labour and Liberal parties, it seems as though they can only wait and watch. The next state election is scheduled for 26th November next year.
Reported by
Khola Usman Matee
References
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/victoria-unlikely-to-eliminate-delta-as-pm-backs-nsw-on-reopening-20210821-p58krm.html
https://theconversation.com/coalition-gains-in-federal-resolve-poll-but-labor-increases-lead-in-victoria-166649
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