Connect with us

Russia-Ukraine

OPINION: Russia’s War in Ukraine – How Does it end?

Published

on

14601882594 755c854526 o
Global Panorama via flickr.com

On 8th April, thousands of evacuees filled a train station in eastern Ukraine fleeing war when they were suddenly struck by a missile.

At least 52 were initially reported dead, and dozens others injured among the crowd of mostly women and children, multiple news outlets reported.

 “This is an evil without limits,” said Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Other nations and organizations such as the United Nations and European Commission vocally condemned the attack. Russia has denied involvement.

By mid-April, the war in Ukraine has seen Russia put nuclear forces on high alert, millions of Ukrainians displaced, more than athousand civilians killed, and put the rest of the world on its toes.

As the conflict rages on and criticisms mount on Russia, there are grave concerns that the war could engulf the world in conflict. 

“There’s a huge chance of miscalculation or maybe deliberate provocation from one side, which could draw other countries in,” said Nicole Jackson, professor of international studies at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia. “That is … a very serious possibility.” 

Part of that concern emerges from an agreement by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a political and military alliance whose members agree that “an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.” If such an attack occurs, each of the member states would come to the defence of the attacked country, including with armed force.

The only time this agreement has been invoked was after the 9/11 attacks in the United States. 

But NATO—whose members include the United States, United Kingdom and Canada, among others— doesn’t want a war in Europe, says Veronica Kitchen, a political scientist at the University of Waterloo. That’s why NATO was reluctant to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, she says.

“You can’t enforce a no-fly zone without shooting down Russian planes and without attacking places within Russia where they’re launching planes from,” Kitchen said. “That would put them immediately into an active war with Russia, which is precisely what they want to avoid.” 

Instead, states and private companies have imposed what are “among the most monumental sanctions … we’ve ever seen,” Kitchen said. But Russia has been under sanctions since 2014, so the country has had time to prepare.

Sanctions are most effective when it’s clear under what conditions they’ll be lifted, but with the withdrawal of private companies, Kitchen said it’s not known whether or when those companies would be ready to reinvest in the country.

“If you have no prospect of these sanctions ever being lifted, where is the motivation to change your behaviour?” she asks.

There are a few possibilities for how the conflict might end.

“Each has demands that the other finds unacceptable,” Jackson said. “Russia does not want to give up Crimea or or the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in the Donbas and Ukraine wants them out.”

The first possibility is Russia and Ukraine negotiate a solution. Ukraine has already said it will not become a member of NATO, one of Russia’s major concerns. Ukraine might still join the European Union as an alternative, with the EU offering to fast-track Ukraine’s application.

Ukraine may lose some of its territory in the negotiated solution, Kitchen said, but it could be in the form of a ceasefire or reduction in fighting without Ukraine formally agreeing that they’re ceding territory (like what’s been in place in Crimea and the Donbas since 2014, and other disputed territories like the Gaza Strip, Cyprus and Kashmir). 

With the early alarm over Russia’s nuclear forces being put in high alert, would initiating nuclear aggression trigger a war?

It’s complicated.

“If it’s a tactical nuclear weapon into Ukraine, that might be a different story,” Kitchen said, noting it wouldn’t automatically activate NATO’s intervention. “That would be a massive humanitarian catastrophe, it would be a massive violation of international law, but it wouldn’t be an attack on NATO.” 

Even then, she expected NATO countries would respond at least diplomatically, with further condemnation, sanctions and support for Ukraine.

“It’s important to recall we have not seen a nuclear strike since 1945. There’s no recent precedent,” she added, noting much would depend on the precise circumstance. “It’s very hard to say what would happen.”

“The use of a nuclear weapon is the most egregious breach of international law that you can contemplate.”

But there is a different role other countries can play to support the peaceful end of the conflict.

NATO countries should continue to provide humanitarian aid in Ukraine and prepare to play a role in supporting peace and reconstruction, Jackson says.

The divisive rhetoric of world leaders isn’t helping, she adds, with Putin describing the West’s sanctions as an act of war and US President Joe Biden saying Putin can’t remain in power, even if, she says, Biden subsequently took those words back.

“The more it’s framed in a black and white way, the harder it is to come to a resolution.” 

All views expressed in this editorial are solely that of the author, and are not expressed on behalf of The Analyst, its affiliates, or staff.

Daily Brief

First Grain Ship Departs Ukraine After Six Months of Russian Blockade

Published

on

Odesa pristav
  • The first shipment of grain departed the port of Odesa on Monday after Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports for the last six months trapped around 20 million metric tons of wheat and corn.
  • Russia recently made a deal with Ukraine, brokered by the UN and Turkey, allowing grain exports to resume, appeasing fears of a global food supply crisis and rising prices.
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba celebrated the shipment, calling it a “day of relief for the world, especially for our friends in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.”
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was more hesitant to celebrate the shipment, stating “it is too early to draw any conclusions and make any forecasts” and he wants to “see how the agreement works and whether security will be really guaranteed.”

All views expressed in this editorial are solely that of the author, and are not expressed on behalf of The Analyst, its affiliates, or staff.

Continue Reading

Daily Brief

Concerns Rise As US Teeters on the Brink of Recession

Published

on

US Stock Market Investing in the United States
  • The US economy declines for the second quarter in a row, causing, what other countries would consider, an economic recession. 
  • The prices for groceries, gas, and other basics are rising at the fastest pace since 1981. The US Central Bank is quickly trying to raise borrowing costs in order to cool the economy and ease the prices on goods, but with the contraction, at the annual rate of 0.9% in the 3 months to July, many are still getting concerned. 
  • President Biden struggles to convince the public that the economy is sound, with the unemployment rate at a low 3.6%. But with inflation in the US hitting 9.1% in June, the fastest price appreciation in 4 months, consumer spending has slowed at an annual rate of 1%. 
  • Many other countries, such as China and the UK, have been hit harder by the surge in energy prices and the War in Ukraine, causing risks from abroad. Other countries are facing much more serious problems and once they’re hit, their problems can spill over and affect the US. 

All views expressed in this editorial are solely that of the author, and are not expressed on behalf of The Analyst, its affiliates, or staff.

Continue Reading

Russia-Ukraine

Russia cuts Germany’s Gas Supply causing Prices to Soar 

Published

on

01 gazprom ru 5
  • Over the course of the Russian-Ukrainian War, Russia began to slowly cut off Germany’s gas supply through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. 
  • Before the war, over half of Germany’s gas came from Russia. By the end of June it was reduced to a quarter of its normal captivity, and now it operates at less than a fifth of it. 
  • Russia’s energy firm Gazprom has stated that this need to cut off Germany’s gas supply was due to maintenance work on a turbine that is needed. Critics have disagreed, claiming that Russia is using it’s gas as a ploy to cause terror to Europe. 
  • The cut of Gas supply to Germany and other central European countries has caused gas prices to rise almost 2%, causing the trade to close to a record high similar to that of when Russia invaded Ukraine. 
  • While Germany scrambles to find a solution to this, Poland states it will be fully independent from Russia by the end of the year in order to avoid blackmail from Russia.

All views expressed in this editorial are solely that of the author, and are not expressed on behalf of The Analyst, its affiliates, or staff.

Continue Reading

Daily Brief

Russia Limits Gas Supply to Germany

Published

on

Black Sea port of Theodosiya panoramio
  • Gazprom, a major Russian energy provider, has stated it will reduce the supply of gas to Germany by half via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline due to repair work. 
  • Germany has said that they see no technical reason for the decrease in gas supply. The European Union continues to accuse Russia of weaponizing energy, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stating, “This is an open gas war that Russia is waging against a united Europe.”
  • Ukraine and Russia signed an agreement to allow the export of grain via the Black Sea after Russia continued to block millions of tonnes from being exported. The next day, Russia struck missiles at the port, some of which hit the infrastructure of the port.
  • The US and Ukraine are optimistic that the agreement will still be implemented, with the US State Department stating, “Despite these attacks, we do understand that the parties are continuing preparations to open Ukraine’s Black Sea ports for food and fertilizer exports…we also continue to expect that the Black Sea agreement will be implemented.”

All views expressed in this editorial are solely that of the author, and are not expressed on behalf of The Analyst, its affiliates, or staff.

Continue Reading

Environment

‘Effects of nuclear war globally catastrophic’, new study warns.

Published

on

Impact of nuclear war on climate

A nuclear war could lead to a ‘nuclear ice age’, plummeting global temperatures, eradicating a vast proportion of sea life and largely implicating global food security, a new study indicates.

Researchers at Louisiana State University in the US conducted several computer simulations in an Earth System Model to assess the impacts of regional and global nuclear wars on oceans. The study, which examined the potential consequences of

conflicts between the US and Russia, as well as Pakistan and India, revealed that in every scenario, smoke and soot from firestorms would release into the upper atmosphere, obstructing the sun and plunging temperatures at an average of 13F (-11C) within  just one month.

Cheryl Harrison, assistant professor and lead author of the study, said the impact would be all-consuming. 

“It doesn’t matter who is bombing whom. It can be India and Pakistan or NATO and Russia. Once the smoke is released into the upper atmosphere it spreads globally and affects everyone,” she told Bloomberg.

“We can and must, however, do everything we can to avoid nuclear war. The effects are too likely to be globally catastrophic,” she added.

The simulations involved testing the impacts of the US and Russia bombing cities and industrial sites with 4, 400 nuclear weapons weighing 100 kilotons or Pakistan and India detonating 500 of the explosives. 

Alan Robock, Professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University, said he hoped the study would “encourage” greater action to thwart the threat.

“Nuclear warfare results in dire consequences for everyone. World leaders have used our studies previously as an impetus to end the nuclear arms race in the 1980s, and five years ago to pass a treaty in the United Nations to ban nuclear weapons. We hope that this new study will encourage more nations to ratify the ban treaty.”

The research warned that a US and Russia conflict may lead to permanent increased Artic sea ice extent and volume. 

A UN report also warned of the rapid “global collapse” of civilisations, partially induced by global conflicts, unless urgent steps were taken to address the issue. 

The latest American study follows a warning to British troops by the army’s top general to prepare to “deter Russian aggression with the threat of force”. Shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Russia Foreign Minister, Sergie Lavrov said a Third World War would involve nuclear weapons and destruction would not be limited to Eastern Europe. 

Ocean temperatures could fall, and sea ice expand by six million square miles, affecting trading as major ports, such as Tianjin in China would be occluded.

Reversing the damage would take decades, the study warned. 

A report from the thinktank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said that the global nuclear arsenal, since the cold war, is expected to increase drastically in the next few years and reversal this amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely.

John Erath, senior policy director for the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, warned earlier that NATO was only capable of blocking an “extremely limited attack” if Russia were to launch a ballistic missile.

As record temperatures hit the UK, scientists claim that frequent and intense heatwaves are the result of human-induced climate change. 

All views expressed in this editorial are solely that of the author, and are not expressed on behalf of The Analyst, its affiliates, or staff.

Continue Reading

Daily Brief

Key Ports in Ukraine are Severely Attacked from Russian Missiles

Published

on

Russian Intercontinental Ballistic Missile launched from Plesetsk
  • According to Ukrainian reports, the city of Odessa was severely attacked, even though Russia agreed to not target any ports with grain shipment.
  • These products are vital to fight against the global food crises and caught on fire after the attack, in which Russia claimed they had nothing to do with the attack.
  • Russia attacked a key port after the signature of the Istanbul Agreement and agreed with Ukraine to ease the exportation of grain.
  • As a result of Russia’s actions, Ukrainian forces have utilised new US missile supplies to target the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson, which would harshly impact the Russian supply if the bridge was destroyed.

Tweets:

All views expressed in this editorial are solely that of the author, and are not expressed on behalf of The Analyst, its affiliates, or staff.

Continue Reading

Recent Comments

Articles