For this East African country, extreme drought and starvation are no strangers, but to surrender itself to famine is akin to branding itself a failed state. And for that, starvation and death are part of a political power grab, waging on with relentless force.
The threat of famine in Somalia has subsided, the United Nations humanitarian agency, OHCA announced in early December. But where aid from humanitarian agencies and efforts of the country’s local communities have helped keep it “outside the door”, these words of relief come with caution. Unless aid steps up, Somalia may still see famine between April and June 2023, it added.
Earlier reports predicted it could have been hit by famine between September and December 2022. By the final month, 30,000 of its 16 million population were expected to be affected. A report by the World Food Programme in September had already reported that two of its districts, Baidoa and Buurhakaba, were in it.
But detrimental levels of starvation already grip this East African nation. As an insurgency by militant group Al Shabab blocks aid delivery to its controlled zones in southern Somalia, three million people are internally displaced. 700,000 Somalis are at risk of dying from starvation next year, said an alliance of UN aid agencies and groups. Yet, the threshold to declare famine has not been triggered.
“There is a very strong political question here about declaring famine, and the current government actually doesn’t have an interest in a famine declaration,” says Omar Mahmood, a senior analyst for Eastern Africa at Crisis Group.
President Hasan Sheikh Mahamud, who assumed office in June 2022 following delayed elections, claimed the country had “enough food to feed our people”. His comments came as the UN urged the government to declare a famine. Instead, Mr Mahamud insisted that whilst Somalia was experiencing hunger, the government was doing its “best” to ensure food and medical supplies were reaching vulnerable communities.
Mr Mahmood says the state saw admitting to it as “interrupting their other priorities”.
“Everything gets thrown only to famine relief once you hit that marker, and it’s a balance because that, of course, does draw more attention,” he says.
The Somali government has made strides in grappling with its humanitarian crisis. Shortly after taking office, President Mahamud appointed his election opponent, Abdirahman Abdishakur as special envoy on drought response in May, tasked with engaging international partners on the matter.
In December, the Office of the Special Envoy on the Humanitarian Crisis and Drought launched a collaborative effort with the Somali Independent Media Association, aiming to train more than 400 journalists on climate change and humanitarian reporting.
“Somali journalists have been left alone to deal with the crisis that has been unfolding for decades without any support and they have faced many challenges when performing their roles,” Mr Abdishakur said the purpose of the training scheme, which will run in every major city, was also to combat fake news around the drought.
Famine and a Failed State?
His concerns mirror many in Somalia’s government, who claim the country is not a failed state. Instead, against a backdrop of political instability, their refrain is there is a functioning government, which has come a long way from the turmoil three decades of internal conflict have caused. But it defies calls from those outside the state who say emergency should be declared.
A famine is usually declared when at least 20% of a population suffers from extreme food shortage, at least 30% of children experience malnutrition and at least two people out of 10,000 die daily from starvation. By this threshold, some regions such as Bay, in southern Somalia, are already experiencing it, since nearly 50% of its residents are living with food insecurity.
Why isn’t the Somali government declaring famine?
Since famines are political, the UN cannot declare it in Somalia without an agreement from its government.
Mr Mahamud agreed that even though the risk of calling the situation in Somalia a famine is very high, such a declaration would not just affect victims but also halt the country’s development, as international aid risked being diverted from long-term developmental projects. But another reason for their reluctance is the possibility that giving into these calls could result in mass migration from its rural areas and into bigger cities. This would, they fear, trigger a shortage of resources in these cities, surging its crime rates.
But Mr Mahmood thinks the government “have to revisit this question”: “The reality is what’s happening on the ground, if that’s a famine, it must be declared as such. That will help mobilise resources as well,” he says.
Humanitarian partners have requested $1.46 billion. However, until now they only have 43% of the funds they need. The United States have donated $707 million. But funds from elsewhere are lacking. The UK has only donated $2.3 million this year.
When famine arrived in 2011, it killed more than 250,000 people. No early warnings, and inaction meant half of those who lost their lives, died before a famine was officially declared. But six years later, a different story emerged. International donations and governmental preparedness helped curb it in 2017.
While he reinforces the need for a stronger response, Mr Mahmood says the present government’s strategy is better than previous ones.
“The last administration wasn’t focused on the fight against Al Shabab. They were focused on domestic political opponents. The struggle against Al Shabab fell by the wayside,” he says.
Engagement with the militant group, he cautions, is a “very risky strategy” and would have long-term consequences, but dialogue may placate tensions.
Involvement by international actors has attracted controversy, with airstrikes in the US considered to be an unlikely tool to end violence. Under former US president Donald Trump’s administration, the USA’s counterterrorism war escalated; in his first year in office alone, President Trump conducted more airstrikes than the preceding administration had. By the end of his tenure, the number of airstrikes totaled 202, and records indicate the number of civilian fatalities ranged from six to 30, although the true figure is likely to be higher.
As both sides vie for control, for those looking in, Somalia is no less than a hotbed of extremism. An attack in early January saw the killing of 20 people in a village in the Middle Shabelle region. In response to these attacks, its federal government, calls for more airstrikes to be carried out by the US Africa Command (AFRICOM), a combatant group of the US Defence Department to finish off Al Shabab.
Creating a theatre for a power struggle, many others may see constant airstrikes and the consequent killings of civilians not a strategy to assuage the raging flames of violence.
But Mr Mahmood insists the airstrikes do help “keep the pressure on the organisation”. Where previous attempts to “push” the militant group “closer to defeat” under President Trump’s administration, failed, “the same level of ground effort” to bolster its response was “femoral”, he suggests. But now, in the midst of aggression, he sees a glimmer of hope under the current Somali federal government, who he believes is “making that little bit of progress”.
‘Putting the ball in their court’
Starvation, and politics have long been intertwined in this East African country. But this, he says, is a “crossing-cutting issue”, not a “political issue”. He goes on: “This is about how we provide for the Somali population which both they, and the government claim to serve and claim to be the legitimate actor governing them.”
He adds: I think it’s about putting the ball in their court and therefore, the response, either way, will basically be on them.”
Learning from the past, and taking steps to engage with adversaries may be in the country’s interests, he says.
“What happened in 2011 was they did have a bit of a disastrous response and it cost them popular support as well. So, it’s important to them if they want to make the same strategic mistake or if they are an actor that actually does care about the wider population and can put aside some ideological or political issues in order to ensure Somalis get the aid they need,” says Mr Mahmood.
Somalia’s famine in 2011 indicated that appropriate communication and negotiation with terror groups are important. During the famine, Al-Shabaab demanded monitoring access to the organisation programmes or ‘helping fees’ from them, which could be as high as $10,000, to curb the death toll.
Some organisations gave in and paid those fees, but some did not. The result was attacks, and bans of organisations from Al-Shabaab territory. Even organisations such as UNICEF or the World Food Programme (WFP) were expelled from Al-Shabaab territory for not fulfilling the requirements.
More needs to be done
Approximately 7 million people are suffering in Somalia due to starvation.
He ends on a warning that relying merely on the “immediate response” alone is not enough. Instead adaptation is a necessary precursor to beckoning in change for the good. Otherwise, he envisages a bleak picture: “The reality is these droughts will continue to happen, and the frequency between them will continue to decrease.”
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